Engineering a Sustainable Future: Evaluating the Multifaceted Impacts of Transitioning to All-Electric Bus Fleets in Urban Areas

Abstract

The global shift towards electric buses in urban transportation, driven by growing concerns over air pollution and climate change, represents a significant departure from the traditional reliance on diesel buses. However, the transition from fossil fuel-powered to electric buses is a complex process that, if not properly managed, could lead to unintended ecological consequences. To comprehensively assess the environmental impact of transitioning to an all-electric bus fleet, we developed an innovative environmental index model that goes beyond the conventional well-to-wheel (WTW) analysis of pollutants. Our model incorporates a wide range of environmental factors, including greenhouse gases (GHG), soil and water pollution, and waste accumulation, providing a holistic view of the ecological footprint of electric buses. Furthermore, to evaluate the financial viability of this transition, we constructed a break-even point model that considers the initial costs and long-term operational savings associated with electric buses. To enhance the accuracy and reliability of our financial projections, we employed advanced time series models, namely ARIMA and linear regression, to forecast future oil and electricity prices. By integrating these economic forecasts into our break-even point model, we developed a comprehensive framework for assessing the financial feasibility of transitioning to an all-electric bus fleet by 2033. Leveraging this framework, we created detailed ten-year roadmaps for three major U.S. cities – New York, Los Angeles, and San Francisco – outlining the strategic steps required to achieve a sustainable and cost-effective transition to electric buses. Our findings provide valuable insights for policymakers, urban planners, and transportation authorities, empowering them to make informed decisions as they navigate the complexities of adopting electric buses in their cities.