Study On River Regulation and Emergency Management Based on SARIMA And Dam Control Models

Abstract

Across the globe, with population growthand climate change, improving the accuracy and responsiveness of water resource management is crucial for ensuring water security. This study takes the establishment of an optimal water level control system for the Great Lakes in North America as its starting point. It comprehensively considers the changes in flow rates of six major rivers that affect the water level fluctuations of the Great Lakes, using SARIMA models to forecast the seasonal variations in the flow rates of these rivers. Considering the complexity of lake systems, this article introduce lag factors, sensitivity factors, and emergency control factors to establish a dam control model for the Great Lakes. After effective evaluation of the model, under this control system, the simulated water levels of the Great Lakes are close to the optimal levels and exhibit good emergency response capabilities. Applying data from the Great Lakes in 2017 to the aforementioned control system, the results show that the average difference between simulated values and optimal values is 0.125, indicating a well-regulated control system and effective enhancement of water level control efficiency for the Great Lakes.