The Exploration and Establishment of an Economic Operation Monitoring and Early Warning Model Driven by Big Data

Xiaoping Zhang; Yang Lei; Wancai He; Liu Chang; Yang Peng; Yingying Jiang; ZhengMing Kou

doi:10.54097/8jnsgm63

Authors

Xiaoping Zhang
Yang Lei
Wancai He
Liu Chang
Yang Peng
Yingying Jiang
ZhengMing Kou

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/8jnsgm63

Keywords:

Economic operation of cigarettes; Forecast and early warning; SArima model; Prosperity analysis; back propagation.

Abstract

The tobacco industry is a crucial component of the national economy. Enhancing the foresight, relevance, and effectiveness of macroeconomic regulation to ensure that the cigarette economy operates within a reasonable range is vital for improving macroeconomic alignment and stabilizing its contribution. This study proposes a monitoring index system for the cigarette economy. The SARIMA model is applied to forecast key indicators scientifically, while algorithms like the BP neural network and the prosperity index establish a big data-driven early warning system for cigarette economic operations. This system identifies real-time trends, detects abnormal fluctuations, shifts from reactive regulation to proactive prevention, and provides data-driven support for management decisions.

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