Analysis of economic growth forecast based on regression model

Abstract

In this paper, the population growth retardation model, the unitary linear regression model and the multiple linear regression model are established to solve the problem. After considering the year and population relationship, the total population and the future labor population are predicted by the growth retardation model, and the future education investment and the investment in fixed assets of the whole society are predicted by the unitary linear regression model. After considering such factors as education investment, total population, labor force population, and investment in fixed assets of the whole society, establish a linear relationship between the economy and these factors, and then solve the change of GDP under the joint influence of these factors through multiple regression analysis, and then predict that the economic growth rate in the next 20 years will be 4.71%, 4.49%, 4.29%, 4.10%, 3.93%, 3.78%, 3.64%, 3.51% 3.39%, 3.28%, 3.18%, 3.08%, 2.99% 2.91%, 2.83%, 2.75%, 2.68%, 2.61%, 2.55%, 2.48%. It can be seen that the future economic growth rate shows a downward trend. The growth rate of GDP per capita in the next 20 years will be 4.26%, 4.05%, 3.86%, 3.69%, 3.54%, 3.40%, 3.27%, 3.15%, 3.05%, 2.95%, 2.86%, 2.77%, 2.69%, 2.62%, 2.54%, 2.48%, 2.42%, 2.36%, 2.30%, 2.25%, showing a decreasing trend. Finally, it is concluded that the average annual growth rate of GDP per capita in the next 20 years will be 7%.