Study On Identification of Construction Risk Pathways for Bridge Piers of Cross-Sea Bridges Based on FTA-BN Model

Abstract

In order to explore the risks associated with the construction of bridge piers for cross-sea bridges, this paper presents a comprehensive analysis from five dimensions and proposes a model for identifying construction branch paths for cross-sea bridges based on Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Bayesian Network (BN). The model analyses, diagnoses, and evaluates system risks by using FTA structural inference and BN bidirectional inference. The research findings show that the probability of cross-sea bridge pier construction risk occurring is 36.8% from the perspective of the overall system's risk. From a sensitivity perspective, unexpected accidents and other risk situations are the most sensitive and are likely to cause top events to occur, with the probabilities of two nodes occurring being 36.0% and 37.5%, respectively. From a contribution perspective, poor construction conditions have the greatest impact, and when this node is in the most dangerous state, the probability of top events occurring is the highest at 81%. Poor construction conditions, physiological and physical degradation, and financial factors all have a risk occurrence probability exceeding 50%, and are significant risk factors leading to the occurrence of cross-sea bridge pier construction.