Study on Migration Path of Climate Refugees Based on Grey Prediction and Analytic Hierarchy Process

Abstract

Earth is undergoing climate changes that are affecting our environment. Some of these changes are easy to adjust to, however, some changes of the climate are severe and require immediate drastic solutions. In this paper, we present a solution to dangers posed by rising sea levels in the Maldives. It is a tropical paradise, but it is vulnerable to storms and tsunamis, and due to slowly rising sea levels it could one day disappear completely! The Maldivians will eventually need to migrate to higher ground somewhere. First, we identify the metrics that will influence the process of the transfer of EDPs, while enabling the preservation of culture and language. Then we establish a grey prediction model to predict future changes in population, and identify when the chosen host country will be completely unfit for human habitation. Next we use the Analytic Hierarchy Process combining with the objective situation and subjective thoughts of EDPs to determine the relationship between factors represented by each variable. Finally, we propose policies considerate of all the possibilities so as to maximize the benefits for all involved parties.