Modeling and Analysis of the Entire Process of Building Seismic Loss Based on Probability Theory

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to explore the relationship between earthquakes and building losses and to attempt to develop an ideal model to analyze post-disaster building losses in Sichuan Province, China for economic analysis, seismic analysis, and risk prediction for post-disaster reconstruction. Based on existing theories, this paper follows the assumptions and theories of Poisson distribution in time and exponential distribution in intensity level for random earthquakes, and validates the analysis using recent years of earthquake data from Hokkaido, Japan, and recent years of local earthquake data from Sichuan respectively; After calculating the probability of occurrence of earthquakes within Sichuan, the international earthquake classification scale and Chinese national norms are combined to determine the damage caused to buildings After calculating the probability of occurrence of earthquakes in Sichuan, the minimum seismic rating and probability of occurrence were determined by combining the international seismic classification scale and the Chinese national code; Finally, the final regional loss model was fitted and applied to an earthquake in a remote area of Sichuan.