A Preliminary Study on The Causes of the "Triple-peak" La Niña During 2020-2022

Abstract

 The 2020-2022 triple-peak La Niña is the first consecutive three-year La Niña event in this century. In order to investigate the similarities and differences between this event and the other observed bimodal and triple events, this study uses synthetic and regression analysis, empirical orthogonal function decomposition, and mixed layer heat budget diagnosis to compare other events with this one in terms of location of anomalous negative sea surface temperature (SST), anomalous wind direction, and mixed layer heat budget. In the previous bimodal events, the centers of SST negative anomalies were both in the (5°S-5°N, 180°-120°W) region; there were anomalous northerly and westerly winds east of 140°W, and the negat precipitation anomalies were distributed along north of the equator. In contrast, the peak position of the second negative SST anomaly in this event is more eastward and southward; the anomalous easterlies continue from 120°E to the eastern boundary of the basin, and there is an anomalous southerlies in the eastern part of the basin. To further investigate the role of the anomalous easterlies and southerlies, this study calculates the mixed layer heat budget in key region. Corresponding to the latitudinal (longitudinal) wind anomalies, the latitudinal (longitudinal) temperature advection dominates the robust difference between the bimodal event and this triple-peak event. The anomalous easterlies and southerlies in the equatorial Pacific are favorable to the appearance of the third La Niña year in this event. This study is important in understanding the dynamics of triple-peak La Niña events, and will facilitate the forecast of such event.