Prediction of Mine Water Inflow Based on Growth Curve Model

Abstract

During the construction and operation of a coal mine, water inrush incidents frequently occur. Minor water-related accidents can cause delays in mining operations, while major incidents can result in significant losses and casualties. This paper takes a coal mine in Shanxi as a case study, employing growth curve models and optimal weighted coefficient models to predict the mine's water inflow over the next five years. The predicted water inflow for the No. 4 coal seam, when mining in a single area, is 534.07 m³/h, with a maximum inflow of approximately 694.29 m³/h. Using the analytical method's prediction results as a reference, future scenarios are forecasted through the growth curve model approach. Analysis of the prediction accuracy reveals that the optimal coefficient combination model, established using three growth curve models, has the highest accuracy at 91.52%. The findings of this study provide valuable insights for future water management in coal mining operations.