Mutual Feedback Mechanisms and Vulnerability Assessment of Ecosystem Carbon Sink Dynamics and Land Cover Transformation in Henan Province.

Zhilei Yu

doi:10.54097/3rfvxz33

Authors

Zhilei Yu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/3rfvxz33

Keywords:

Land use change; Henan Province; carbon stocks; InVEST model; Vulnerability.

Abstract

It is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the impact of land use change on carbon storage and the driving factors of spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Henan Province based on the strategic goal of "dual carbon". Taking Henan Province as an example, nearly 30 studies were conducted using the InVEST model and geographic detectors. The response of annual carbon stock to land use change and its spatial differentiation driven, and the potential impact index (PI) was used to evaluate the vulnerability of ecological carbon storage services in this region. (1) In the past 30 years, the land use of Henan Province has undergone significant changes, with the cultivated land area decreasing by 11323.5 km² and the construction land increasing11136.1 km², the transfer of cultivated land to construction land is the main type of land use transfer. (2) From 1990 to 2020, the carbon storage in Henan Province decreased by 0.127×10⁹t. The decrease of cultivated land and the increase of construction land are the leading factors for the reduction of carbon stocks. Spatially, the spatial distribution characteristics are high in the western and southern margins, and relatively low in the central, northern and eastern regions. (3) The spatial differentiation of carbon storage in Henan Province was affected by a variety of factors, among which the influence of a single factor on the medium slope factor (explanatory power of 0.36) was the most significant. Among the multi-factor interactions, the interaction between night light (x9) and slope (x6) has the largest explanatory power, reaching 0.43. (4) The overall PI index of each stage in Henan Province showed that the ecosystem carbon storage services had a negative impact, showing a trend of first weakening and then increasing. There are spatial differences in the vulnerability between cities, with the distribution characteristics of high in the south and low in the north, and the vulnerability of 55% of the cities has increased in 30 years. The transfer of cultivated land and the expansion of construction land in Henan Province have a significant impact on carbon storage and carbon storage service vulnerability, and the rational allocation of construction land and cultivated land should be paid attention to in the future.

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