Can Intraday Return Reversals Predict Future Stock Returns?

Abstract

Based on the research of the US stock market, it is found that the fierce long-short battle between heterogeneous investors with different views is manifested as the high-frequency inversion between overnight returns and daytime returns over a period of time. This kind of long-short battle has an impact on asset prices over time, resulting in pricing anomaly on a cross-section. Based on the research of A-share market, this paper finds that after controlling the characteristics of scale, book-to-market ratio, reversal effect, profitability, turnover rate, etc., the abnormal frequency of opening high and closing low (AB_NR) is significantly positively correlated with the future return of stocks. The hedge portfolio constructed according to AB_NR has excess returns in time series (opening high and closing low anomaly) which cannot be explained by the existing asset pricing model. Further testing shows that the anomaly is significant in the period of high arbitrage cost and high investor sentiment. The empirical results show that the anomaly is due to mispricing rather than risk premium.