Research on Default Risk of Urban Investment Bonds Based on Multi-factor Model and KMV Model
Take Shanghai as an example
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/py9e9n85Keywords:
Default risk of urban investment bonds, Multi-factor model, KMV model, Mixed research method, Risk assessment modelAbstract
With the acceleration of urbanization in China, the urban investment bond market is facing increasing risks and challenges while providing financial support for infrastructure construction. Aiming at the complexity and uncertainty of the market, the study aims to improve the accuracy and applicability of risk measurement through model fusion. This study will comprehensively consider market factors, company financial situation and macroeconomic indicators, and use the comprehensiveness of multi-factor model and the accurate estimation of default probability by KMV model. The results show that the combination of data collection, model construction, factor optimization and model validation can provide investors and regulators with scientific decision-making and effective supervision. Promote the stable development of the market.
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