Pet Industry Development Forecast Based on Gray GM (1, 1) Modeling

Abstract

This study aims to forecast the development of China's pet industry based on a gray GM (1,1) model, focusing on the current state of the industry in the last five years and the global demand for pet food in the next three years. Through hierarchical analysis, this paper builds multiple models to capture market dynamics at different levels to enhance forecasting accuracy. The study shows that the popularity of pet cats continues to rise, while the pet dog market is becoming saturated, reflecting changes in consumer preferences. In forecasting the global demand for pet food, this study compares the annual growth rate and the average annual growth rate, utilizing the performance of the GM (1,1) model versus the NGM (1,1, k, c) model, and ultimately selects the model with better forecasting capabilities. The analysis shows that the global demand for pet food will continue to grow over the next three years, highlighting the potential and challenges of the pet food market. This study provides a scientific basis for strategy development in the pet industry through a gray forecasting methodology to cope with data uncertainty and changing market dynamics.