Research on the Assessment and Control of Enterprise Production Risks Under Uncertain Environments

Abstract

With the continuous development of my country's economy, the scale of the manufacturing industry is increasing day by day. Regardless of the circumstances, production risks within enterprises are ubiquitous, and are becoming increasingly complex and hidden with the upgrading of technology and the continuous changes in market demand. If enterprises ignore production risks in their daily production and operation, they will eventually face inevitable losses such as equipment failures, damage, and profit contraction. Therefore, in order to achieve long-term development, enterprises must fully recognize the risks existing in production and formulate targeted control plans. To effectively help enterprises determine production risk control schemes in uncertain environments, this paper proposes a risk analysis and evaluation method based on fuzzy comprehensive evaluation. First, brainstorming is used within the enterprise to identify production risks. Then, the Delphi method is used to screen the collected risks and preliminarily determine the important risks, which are then classified by attributes to form a risk list. Second, fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is introduced in the risk assessment stage to quantify the importance of risk factors. The weight of each risk factor is calculated by constructing a judgment matrix. Third, the top five risk factors with the highest weights are selected as key risk factors and used as evaluation indicators in the scheme selection stage. Then, based on the analytic hierarchy process, the weighted scoring method is used to determine the optimal production risk control scheme. Finally, the feasibility of the proposed method is verified using Company A as an example.