The Long- and Short-Run Causal Effects of Logistics Efficiency on Cross-Border E-Commerce Development: An ARDL Bounds Testing Approach

Abstract

This study investigates the long- and short-run causal effects of logistics efficiency on cross-border e-commerce (CBEC) development along the Zamyn-Üüd–Erenhot land port corridor between Mongolia and China. Utilizing monthly time-series data from 2020 to 2025, we employ the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to examine the dynamic relationships between CBEC transaction value and three dimensions of logistics efficiency—logistics timeliness, logistics cost, and information transparency. The empirical results reveal that: (1) a stable long-run cointegrating relationship exists between logistics efficiency and CBEC development; (2) logistics timeliness exhibits the most substantial long-run elasticity (−0.42, p<0.01), indicating that a 1% reduction in delivery time increases CBEC transaction value by approximately 0.42% in the long run; (3) logistics cost reduction shows a significant long-run effect (−0.28, p<0.05); (4) information transparency exerts both direct and indirect effects on CBEC growth; and (5) the error correction term (−0.31, p<0.01) confirms a relatively rapid adjustment speed toward long-run equilibrium following short-run shocks. These findings provide quantitative evidence for the strategic importance of logistics infrastructure investment in landlocked developing countries and offer actionable implications for policymakers and logistics practitioners operating along the China-Mongolia trade corridor.