Trade Prospects of China's Agricultural Exports to Countries along the "Belt and Road"
Keywords:Belt and Road; Agricultural products, Trade efficiency, Trade prospects, Time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model.
Agricultural economic and trade cooperation is an important part of the "One Belt, One Road" strategy, the introduction and implementation of which provides a unique historical opportunity for the development of China's agricultural trade. This paper selects panel data of China and 15 member countries of the Eurasian Union and ASEAN along the "Belt and Road" from 2000 to 2020. It uses the time-varying stochastic frontier gravity model and the import intensity index to measure China's trade expansion space and other countries' agricultural import dependence. Then, based on these two indicators, using the Boston Matrix analysis method to predict the outlook for agricultural trade between China and those 15 countries and put forward proper policy recommendations. The results show that China's trade prospects with the 15 member countries of the Eurasian Union and ASEAN along the Belt and Road differ in different agricultural market segments. But still, the overall prospects are bright, and there is room for individual countries to expand their trade or become more closely linked to our agricultural markets. China should develop more profound and comprehensive trade cooperation on the silk road for each country with different possibilities to stimulate trade potential and improve the prospects of agricultural exports to various countries.
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