Research on Risk Propagation in Complex Supply Chain Networks Based on SEIR Model

Yang Liu; Jingxin Liang

doi:10.54097/fbem.v7i3.5586

Authors

Yang Liu
Jingxin Liang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/fbem.v7i3.5586

Keywords:

supply chain network, risk propagation, SEIR model, fundamental regeneration number, simulation.

Abstract

The complexity of supply chain network structure makes the risk propagation among the enterprises in the supply chain more and more complicated. This paper constructs a SEIR risk propagation model for complex supply chain networks based on the analytical idea of contagion model, which reveals the risk propagation mechanism of supply chain networks from a macro perspective. The article verifies the existence of risk propagation threshold and the stability of different equilibrium points by analyzing the basic regeneration number, equilibrium point and stability of the model; explores the effectiveness of different parameters on the basic regeneration number by combining sensitivity analysis; and verifies them by using MATLAB simulation software. The results show that the basic regeneration number is a key factor affecting the risk propagation, and the risk diffusion in this system can be effectively curbed by controlling the basic regeneration number.

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