Cislunar Transportation Optimization Framework Based on Weighted Multi-Objective Optimization and Negative Binomial Reliability Modeling

Abstract

This paper develops a decision-making framework for large-scale Earth–Moon material transportation that balances transportation efficiency and economic cost. We first construct transportation models for both the space elevator system and conventional rocket launches, characterizing their operational behavior through capacity constraints and cost functions. Based on these models, we develop a hybrid transportation optimization model that allocates cargo mass between different transportation routes. We then formulate a weighted multi-objective optimization model to jointly optimize transportation time and total cost. To account for uncertainty in rocket launches, we introduce a reliability analysis framework based on the negative binomial distribution, which captures the influence of launch success probability on transportation duration and cost. Numerical results show that the proposed framework achieves a stable trade-off between efficiency and cost while maintaining robust performance under varying launch reliability conditions. The framework provides a practical modeling approach for planning large-scale space transportation systems.