Research on future demographic trends based on the Chinese population growth model

Abstract

Population development plays a vital role in the healthy and orderly operation of our country. To understand the new trends and characteristics of population change can effectively grasp the basic national condition of population and promote the high-quality development of China's economy. Based on the new characteristics and influencing factors of China's population, this paper establishes the mathematical model of China's population growth in the new era, and predicts the change trend of short-term and long-term population in China. First, we adopt the classical GM (1,1) model to predict the short-and medium-term demographic changes, and the fitting effect is very good. Then, in the long-term prediction, based on China's population policy and the future trend of population development, we choose the logistic population block growth model, which also got relatively good results. Next, we selected the representative five provinces of Guangdong, Zhejiang, Hubei, Heilongjiang and Inner Mongolia for comparative analysis according to the above model, and concluded that the correlation coefficient of people such as age structure, urbanization rate, birth and mortality were the main factors affecting population change. Finally, we put forward corresponding policy suggestions by changing the age structure, urbanization rate, sex ratio model correlation coefficient, combined with our country's recent population policy.