Changes In Clean Energy Index Before and After Russia-Ukraine War: Evidence from ARIMA Model

Abstract

With the outbreak of the Russia-Ukraine War, the geopolitical situation was tense. The uncertainty of the impact of the war crisis and conflict, especially the impact on financial and energy sanctions, reduced the growth expectations of the energy economy. This paper examines the changes in the clean energy index before and after the Russia-Ukraine War, extracts the stock composite index of listed companies in the industry before and after the Russia-Ukraine War, and build ARIMA model to analyze the data, determine and analyze the profitability and stock volatility of the clean energy index before and after the Russia-Ukraine War, investigate how the Russia-Ukraine conflict affects the clean energy index and predicts the future trend of the clean energy index. Interestingly, whether in the ultra-short term, the short term, or the short-medium term, the Russia-Ukraine War has a considerable positive change on the clean energy index. Investment is good, and investors can quickly rebound from the pessimistic mood of the war and reinvest in the market. At the same time, the study predicted the possible future of the clean energy index, analyzed the government's policies to stabilize the response of war shocks to financial markets, and provided investors with relevant management and investment suggestions for "reasonable speculation" profits to avoid the impact of external risk shocks on financial asset returns.