Interactions Among Energy Consumption per GDP, Technological Innovation Input and Energy Consumption Structure in China During the 14th Five-Year Plan Period

Abstract

In the context of China's 14th Five-Year Plan, this paper examines the complex interactions between energy utilization efficiency, technological advancement, and energy-consuming structure. The Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, impulse response functions, and variance decomposition are used to thoroughly analyze time series data extending from 1999 to 2022 to reveal the dynamic relationships and effect mechanisms among these variables. The results show that the multidimensional adjustment of energy use has been driven in large part by technological innovation. In the short term, the improvement in energy utilization efficiency is predominantly propelled by its inherent inertia, while technological innovation gradually becomes the primary driving force. The positive impact of technological innovation input enhances energy utilization efficiency, while improved energy utilization efficiency stimulates later-stage technological innovation investment. Furthermore, a shift towards reduced GDP energy intensity is essential, focusing on controlling fossil fuel usage while advancing non-fossil energy sources. It underscores the significance of optimizing traditional fossil fuel utilization and gradually transitioning to clean energy sources for sustained and efficient energy-consuming patterns.