Research On the Impact of Aluminum Metal Futures Prices on The Stock Prices of Aluminum Enterprises- Based on The Perspective of Upstream and Downstream

Abstract

This paper takes aluminum metal futures as an example to explore the impact of fluctuations in non-ferrous metal futures prices on the stock price performance of related listed companies. Firstly, the basic situation of aluminum futures is introduced, and then further discussion is conducted on how aluminum futures affect the stock prices of upstream and downstream enterprises related to aluminum. Then, empirical analysis is conducted. This article uses methods such as ADF, EG-ADF, ECM model, and Granger test to explore the impact of aluminum metal futures prices on the weighted stock prices of upstream and downstream enterprises related to aluminum. The research results indicate that the impact of aluminum metal futures prices on the stock prices of aluminum enterprises varies with different positions in the industry chain. There is a one-way guiding relationship for the weighted stock prices of upstream aluminum enterprises, while there is no leading and lagging guiding relationship for the weighted stock prices of downstream enterprises. Based on the upstream and downstream perspectives, this article selects four representative listed companies in the aluminum industry to weight their stock prices according to their market value ratios, and explores their relationship with aluminum futures prices. This study helps investors evaluate stock price trends and make wiser investment choices; Adjusting business plans and coordinating stock prices for aluminum enterprises has positive significance; At the same time, it helps regulatory authorities to gain a deeper understanding of market information and further understand the price discovery function of futures markets