The Effects of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Exports and Imports Values from China: Evidence from Time Series Model

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in late 2019, caused significant disruptions in global economy, affecting commercial operations globally. China, a key factor in global commerce, encountered substantial obstacles due to disruptions in supply chains, a sharp decline in demand, and the implementation of containment measures. Using time series analytic methodologies such as the Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, this study presents an exhaustive analysis of the influence that the COVID-19 pandemic has had on the values of China's imports and exports. This research sheds light on the subtle dynamics of China's commercial environment in the middle of the pandemic by conducting a comprehensive examination of data spanning from January 1, 2010, to December 1, 2023. This paper highlights China's import and export volumes were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, especially noticeable during the early phase of the crisis. The decrease in import quantities in April and May 2020 highlights the many economic impacts of the epidemic on business, highlighting the pivotal role of supply chains in facilitating economic recovery. Policymakers must prioritize supply network resilience and implement targeted policies like employment subsidies and job training to mitigate the unemployment effects of pandemic-induced economic downturns and reduced import volumes, promoting economic recovery and stability after crises.