The Impact caused by the COVID-19 Pandemic on the Price of Chemical Raw Materials: Take Butyl Acrylate (BA) for Example

Abstract

The chemical manufacturing industry was deeply shocked by COVID-19 pandemic in the first half of 2020, however, the price change of chemical raw material didn’t present an apparent trend. This paper explores and analyses the situation of chemical raw material market in detail by collecting the weekly price offers for butyl acrylate in East China before and after the outburst of COVID-19 in China. After building an ARIMA model for the price and comparing its prediction with the actual value, it was clearly found the price of chemicals dropped severely because of the pandemic, and conclusion is made that the in-depth reason was the sharp drop of demands in downstream industry, which is also appropriate for most chemicals, especially those related to petrochemical industry. The study highlights its detailed research on the factors related to price fluctuation and the use of ARIMA model for simulating the price under the hypothetical situation with no pandemic happening, which is a new method for researches on chemical industry researches, and it provides subsequent researchers with a more effective perspective comparing with traditional chemical researches using quantitative experiment and comparison. And the study is also referential for policy makers in the government on making market regulation and macroeconomic control, as the interpretation for price change of chemicals in this study is important for all industry workers concerned.