Strengthening the Resilience of China's Natural Gas Trade Network Security

An Energy Security Perspective under the "Dual Carbon" Goal

Abstract

Against the backdrop of the "dual-carbon" goal, the global energy transition and drastic changes in the geopolitical landscape, the strategic position of natural gas as a key low-carbon transition energy source has become increasingly prominent, and the security and resilience of its trade network has become a core issue in guaranteeing China's energy security. However, its trade network faces multiple challenges such as resource dependence, geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in supply and demand, and network security, threatening energy security and supply chain stability. Based on the system resilience theory and the "14th Five-Year Plan" energy strategy framework, this paper combines the structural characteristics of the international energy trade network and the resilience theory, systematically analyses the current situation and problems of China's natural gas trade network in static and dynamic dimensions, and reveals the multiple challenges faced by China's natural gas trade network in the areas of resource endowment, geopolitics, market supply and demand, network security and emergency response capability. The study finds that the current natural gas trade network in China is facing multiple challenges. The study finds that China's current natural gas trade network has problems such as low overall resilience, dependence on core countries, and lagging infrastructure, which are prone to supply risks in case of extreme shocks. By building a four-dimensional resilience enhancement framework of "diversified supply-technical protection-international synergy-system optimisation", the study proposes comprehensive measures such as expanding the diversified supply layout of gas sources, strengthening the digital security protection system, deepening the global resource cooperation, perfecting the emergency reserve mechanism and scientific risk management, etc., which will provide theoretical support for the construction of a safe and efficient natural gas trade network for China in the complex international environment. The study provides theoretical support and practical path for China to build a safe and efficient natural gas trade network in the complex international environment. The study shows that by improving the efficiency of domestic shale gas development (targeting a 50% self-sufficiency rate), deploying quantum encryption technology (reducing the risk of data leakage by 90%), building a transnational supply chain alliance (reducing the impact of geopolitical conflicts by 35%) and expanding storage capacity (adding 20 billion cubic metres of new gas), we can effectively strengthen the security and resilience of the natural gas trading network, which is of great reference value for enhancing the risk-resistant capacity of the energy system and promoting low-carbon transformation. This is an important reference value for enhancing the risk-resistance of the energy system and promoting low-carbon transformation, and will provide a guarantee for China to achieve its "dual-carbon" goal and energy security.