Prediction of Runoff in Huayuankou of the Yellow River based on Autoformer-LSTM

Feifei Yu

doi:10.54097/aesk0y28

Authors

Feifei Yu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/aesk0y28

Keywords:

Time Series Prediction, Autoformer, LSTM, Huayuankou Hydrological Station

Abstract

To effectively extract information features of runoff time series and improve the accuracy of river runoff prediction methods. we integrated Autoformer with Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) to develop an Autoformer-LSTM runoff prediction model. We simulated and validated the model using daily runoff, precipitation, and average water level data from January 1, 2002, to December 31, 2022, at Huayuankou Hydrological Station, a key station in the lower Yellow River Basin. And select Autoformer model, Transformer model, and Informer model for comparative prediction experiments. The results show that the Autoformer-LSTM and Autoformer models outperformed the Transformer and Informer models in predictive accuracy. Furthermore, compared to the Autoformer model, the Autoformer-LSTM model reduced Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Mean Squared Error (MSE), and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 13.1%, 78.7%, and 53.9%. This prediction method can fully explore the inherent laws of hydrological time series data, effectively utilize the temporal nature of hydrological information, and improve prediction accuracy.

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