Study on Population Prediction based on Logistic Block Growth Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/2mb4zz22Keywords:
Aging, Logistic Model, Nonlinear Characteristics, Population Prediction, Resource ConstraintsAbstract
According to the realistic demand of population prediction, combined with the constraint conditions of resource upper limit, policy intervention and aging, the applicability of Malthusian exponential growth model, Logistic retardation growth model and GM(1,1) grey prediction model is analyzed. Based on comprehensive consideration, this paper finally chooses Logistic retardation growth model to predict the population in the next five years. Through mathematical model construction and empirical analysis, the prediction results show that the model can effectively describe the saturation trend of population growth.
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[2] Wang, Z., Dang, Y., & Wang, Y. (2007). A new grey Verhulst model and its application. In 2007 IEEE International Conference on Grey Systems and Intelligent Services (pp. 571–574). IEEE.
[3] Booth, H. (2006). Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review. International Journal of Forecasting, 22(3), 547–581.
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