Research on the Prediction of the Number of Nuclear Weapons in the World in the Future Based on NAR Neural Network Model

Abstract

The issues connected with nuclear weapons are closely related to the survival of mankind. Nuclear weapons pose a great threat to world security, human health, the Earth's environment, and other aspects. This paper conducted an investigation and mathematical analysis on the research and development of nuclear weapons in each country, its stockpiles, the number of nuclear tests and the attitude of each country towards nuclear weapons research and development. In order to predict the number of nuclear-weapon countries in the next 100 years, this study can use the number of nuclear-weapon countries in 1938 to 2022 and the number of nuclear weapons in each country in the inventory table to establish a simple sequence prediction neural network, and use the prediction method of NAR neural network model to finally get the change trend of the number of nuclear-weapon countries and the number of nuclear weapons.Finally, it was concluded that the countries with nuclear weapons in 100 years would still be the nine countries with nuclear weapons today, and the total number of nuclear weapons dropped to 8,787. China, France, India, Israel, North Korea, Pakistan, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States respectively have 312, 271, 135, 74, 16, 151, 3,745, 161, and 3,922 nuclear weapons in 2123.