Analysis and Forecast of Land Use Based on Patch-generating Land Usage Simulation (PLUS) Model: A Case of Shaanxi Province in China

Abstract

China has witnessed a substantial number of land-use type shifts and broken land-use distribution patterns as a result of massive irrational exploitation, which has led to problems like a significant loss of environmental habitability and declining ecosystem functioning. Investigating the origins and mechanisms of land-use change is essential. The results show that earlier land-use models, which also lacked simulation studies and projections of land-use changes in Shaanxi Province over a 20-year timeframe, find it difficult to integrate quantitative and spatial pattern forecasts. This paper uses the patch-generating land usage simulation (PLUS) model to assess Shaanxi Province's land use patterns between 2000 and 2020 and predict land usage for the year 2025.Farmland, woodlands, and grassland are the three main land types that make up most of the Shaanxi Province's total area. Forests make up most of the land that will be transferred between 2000 and 2020, while agriculture makes up most of the land that will be transferred. Most of the elements influencing the spread of all land use types were rainfall and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI). The central and southern regions of Shaanxi province will primarily experience changes in land use by 2025.This research offering a resource for Shaanxi Province's science of land use structure and efficient land resource allocation.