Time Series Analysis of Air Quality Index (AQI) in Beijing from 2014 to 2021

Abstract

Air problems seriously affect people's physical health, quality of life and happiness in life. Beijing as the capital of China, air quality problems should be paid more attention to. This paper analyzes the monthly data (AQI values) of air pollution in Beijing from 2014 to 2021, discusses the trend effects and seasonal effects of AQI data, constructs the ARIMA multiplication model with the highest degree of matching, and predicts the future air quality of Beijing. The results show that the air quality in Beijing from 2014 to 2021 will improve year by year, and the air quality will be better in the next three years. This paper also analyzes whether the improvement of air quality in Beijing is relevant to the document promulgated in 2018 whose name is “Beijing's Three-Year Action Plan to Win the Blue Sky Defence War”, and whether the impact is sustainable. The results show that the promulgation of the document has effectively improved the air quality in Beijing without delay effect, and we can reasonably predict that the air quality will improve further on the basis of this impact in 2022-2024.