Aviation Safety Risk Analysis Based on Bayesian Network Modeling

Abstract

The occurrence of serious flight accidents not only brings huge economic losses to airlines but also poses a great threat to passengers' lives. The occurrence of serious flight accidents will not only bring great economic losses to airlines but also cause great threats to the lives of passengers. Therefore, in this paper, based on the flight records of different flight crews, flight routes, airports, and specific flight conditions, aircraft safety risk analysis is conducted to calculate and evaluate the risk propensity. Firstly, the data are preprocessed, and then the QAR data are clustered to extract the key data items affecting the safe flight of the aircraft; then the data are transformed to the attached data, and a hierarchical clustering model is established based on the K-means clustering algorithm, which classifies the factors affecting the safety quality of the aircraft flight into the three main aspects of environmental factors, crew maneuvering, and aircraft state, and the key parameters are weighted by the Random Forest algorithm. weights of the key parameters. Then, based on the 3 criterion, the outliers exceeding 3 were selected as the dependent variables leading to the occurrence of deviation; based on the three-layer model, a Bayesian neural network model based on the three-layer model, and then determine the Bayesian nodes; finally, calculate the Bayesian node probability, and then provide a reasonable quantitative description of the flight maneuver.