Prediction of the Situation of Postgraduate Entrance in China: Applicants and Enrollments
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/fbwr5x54Keywords:
ARIMA, postgraduate, applicant, enrollment.Abstract
Applying for a postgraduate program has always been a popular choice after the four undergraduate years in China because it is deemed to increase competitivity in the job market. In recent years, applying for a postgraduate program has become more and more of a necessity when entering the job market. Therefore, it is important to understand and predict the postgraduate entrance trend. This paper used ARIMA model to predict the number of postgraduate applicants and enrollments in the near future after using KPSS tests to determine the order of differencing, and a combination of unit root tests, and optimization of AICc and MLE to find the optimal order of autoregression and moving average. The result reached is that the number of postgraduate applicants follows an ARIMA (1,2,0) model, and that of enrollments follows an ARIMA (3,2,0) model. The number of both postgraduate applicants and enrollment will keep on rising in the near future, while the admission rate is mostly stable.
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