Sunspot Prediction Based on The Adaptive ARIMA Model

Abstract

The sun is closely related to human beings, and any change in its activities may have a huge impact on human beings. The study and prediction of solar activities is particularly important for the survival and development of human beings. Humans often learn about solar activity by studying sunspots. In this paper, the study predicts the start time, end time, sunspot number, and area size of the next sunspot. In this paper, we predict the length and sunspot number and area of the next solar activity cycle based on the ARIMA time series model, the BP neural network model, and the trend model. In this paper, the ARIMA-BP neural network hybrid model is predicted that the next sunspot start time is 2031 and the end time is 2042. The trend model, the number of time and sunspot, predicts that the number of the next sunspot is 12462.58 and the area is 1640.68.