Port Throughput Forecast Based on ARIMA Model-Take Tianjin Port as an Example
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/dv0kzs60Keywords:
Port throughput; shipping; ARIMA model.Abstract
Port throughput has long been a crucial metric for assessing the port's capability and even the region's development, so it is very important to forecast the port throughput. This article will use a larger data set than previous papers - 275 sets of data from Tianjin Port from 2001 to 2023 and conduct predictive analysis through the ARIMA model. The parameters of the model were established by ADF, PACF, and ACF, and the data were adjusted. The data can be effectively fitted by the ARIMA model according to the results. and it is also demonstrated that both the original data and the fitted data exhibit annual periodicity. Therefore, the author made further predictions for 12 periods of data and observed that it also exhibited a pattern of initial growth followed by decline, which is consistent with the trends in the shipping industry. The practical significance of this research is to improve port efficiency and achieve accelerated port development.
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