Spatio-temporal Evolution of Land Use in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Economic Area, 1985-2022 and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Abstract

This research employs GIS and remote sensing technology, along with time-series Land cover data, to examine the evolving patterns of various land use categories (such as forest land, cultivated land, and impervious surfaces) within the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area. The results indicate that the predominant spatial configuration of land use in this region follows a sequence of "forest land-cultivated land-impervious land." Notably, the key transformation observed involves the conversion of cultivated land to impervious surfaces, resulting in a cumulative expansion of impervious areas by 3,346,985 hectares between 1985 and 2022. Moreover, the level of spatial integration among land use types in the Greater Bay Area is progressively standardizing, with notable advancements in scientific, technological, economic, and transportation sectors leading to a high degree of synergy. The system as a whole demonstrates effective coordination and operational efficiency. The methodology section outlines the data sources and analytical techniques employed, encompassing the utilization of the land use transfer matrix, individual land use degree assessment, and spatial coupling function model. Through these methodologies, the study identifies urban economic development as the primary driver behind the proliferation of impervious surfaces, offering valuable insights to inform regional development strategies and environmental governance policies.