Evaluation of the Effectiveness of Tuberculosis Intervention in the US

Abstract

This study evaluates the effectiveness of tuberculosis (TB) interventions implemented in the United States by comparing actual TB incidence and mortality data with predicted data that assumes no interventions. The analysis focuses on two key intervention periods: the introduction of strict infection control measures and enhanced environmental controls in 2005, and the update to TB screening guidelines for healthcare personnel in 2019. This study trained the Auto-regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model on pre-2005 data in order to forecast the number of tuberculosis cases and the proportion of cases overall that did not get these interventions. The predicted data was then compared with actual post-intervention data to assess the impact of these public health measures. Results show that without these interventions, TB cases and mortality rates would have remained significantly higher. The actual data, in contrast, demonstrated a marked decline in both metrics following the implementation of these measures. The findings underscore the critical role of comprehensive public health interventions in reducing the burden of TB. The long-term impact of these measures is evident in the sustained reduction in TB incidence and mortality, highlighting the importance of continuous monitoring and adaptation of TB control strategies to maintain effective disease management.