Predict the frequencies of cold waves in Guangdong in the future using CanESM5 Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/hset.v25i.3426Keywords:
Cold waves, Guangdong, CanESM5.Abstract
In this research, we used the data of daily minimum temperatures from ensemble r1i1p1f1 of CanESM5 model under the five SSP scenarios, namely SSP 1-1.9, SSP 3-7.0, SSP 4-3.4, SSP 4-6.0 and SSP 5-8.5, to calculate the frequencies of cold waves in Guangdong from 1900 to 2100, in order to make an accurate forecast of the pattern of occurrences of cold waves in Guangdong for the foreseeable future and compare it with the situations in the past. The frequencies of cold waves in Guangdong generally stayed stable at 4 from 1900 to 2014, though a slightly decline trend still can be witnessed. The frequencies of cold waves under the scenario SSP1-1.9 will show a decline trend at the beginning, but they will remain and finally increase in the mid and late twentieth century, while the frequencies of cold waves under the scenarios SSP 3-7.0, SSP 4-3.4, SSP 4-6.0 and SSP 5-8.5 will generally all decline in the future. The trends of frequencies of cold waves varied in different regions of China in the past, and the decline trend in northern China was significant than that in southern China.
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